⚽ FPL Gameweek 38 Tips

👋 Hello 👋

It’s here - the final Gameweek of the season!

No Doubles, no Blanks, just all twenty teams kicking off at the same time.

Before we get into things - thank you for all of the support once again this season. This is my second year creating content on my own and it’s an absolute privilege. I know the newsletter only started part way through the season but even that has grown well and hopefully will continue to next season.

Anyway, there’s FPL to talk about…

Gameweek 38 deadline = 15:00 UK time, Sunday 28 May.

 🔥 Gameweek 38 - Hot Topics 🔥

Final Day Differentials

This is the last opportunity to climb the ranks and win those mini-leagues, so let's explore some low owned differentials.

We can check livefpl.net for player ownership in Gameweek 37 within the top 100k. These ownership levels may change before the Gameweek 38 deadline, but they provide the most accurate information and serve as a good indicator of overall differential players.

Harry Kane (£11.4m) has a relatively low ownership of 14.49%, despite his impressive record of 28 goals and 8 assists this season. In a Gameweek where predicting starters might be challenging, we can be confident that Kane will start. Alternatively you could go for a different Spurs attacker - Son Heung-min (£11.5m). Son is 0.08% owned in the top 100k and a huge differential. By his standards he’s not had a great season, but as a one Gameweek punt I really like him if you can afford it.

With Man United securing Champions League football against Chelsea, Erik Ten Hag might rotate more than usual. Alejandro Garnacho (£4.1m), who has mostly been a substitute, could potentially start and has a very low ownership of 0.68%.

Under Roy Hodgson, Eberechi Eze (£5.7m) has consistently started every game, with 6 goals and 2 assists in 9 matches. In Gameweek 38, Palace will face Nottingham Forest in their last home game of the season. Considering Forest's lack of motivation and potential celebrations over securing a Premier League spot next season, I’d expect Palace to have plenty of opportunities to score.

Leeds and Leicester are both in need of a win to have a chance of playing Premier League football next season. While this doesn't guarantee a high-scoring match, if they fall behind, they may be compelled to take more risks. Rodrigo (£6.3m) is expected to play as the number 9 and should be on penalties for Leeds. As for Leicester, Jamie Vardy (£9.1m) is likely to continue as the lone striker, potentially igniting one last Vardy party. If you're looking for a midfielder, James Maddison (£7.8m), who takes most set pieces, has a mere 0.57% ownership.

Arsenal latest

Arsenal are one team I'm considering for Gameweek 38. Despite not winning the league, they can still provide the fans with something to cheer about in a favourable fixture against Wolves (h). With nothing at stake, we may see the Arsenal attack in full flow.

However, certain Arsenal players may not be viable options in Gameweek 38.

Mikel Arteta hasn't ruled out Bukayo Saka (£8.0m), Leandro Trossard (£6.6m), and Reiss Nelson (£4.7m), but they are doubtful for the final game. Without team leaks, it might be risky to consider them.

If you're looking to target Arsenal, your best options are likely Martin Ødegaard (£6.8m) and Gabriel Jesus (£8.1m).

Full strength Man City

According to Pep Guardiola, he’s going to play a team as strong as possible against Brentford.

At first Pep makes it sound like he’s going to play himself, but that’s probably not going to be the case…

We spend 38 Gameweeks trying to guess the Man City line-up only to fail, so let’s do it one last time.

Considering there is a six-day gap between Gameweek 38 and the FA Cup final, I believe most of the current first-choice starting XI will play to maintain match fitness and rhythm.

I’d guess that the first-choice lineup would resemble the one that featured in the second leg semi-final against Real Madrid.

While it's not to say that other players won't be included, the majority of the starting XI will likely consist of the players mentioned above. Riyad Mahrez (£7.5m) has been in the starting lineup for the past six league matches and may occupy the right side instead of Bernardo Silva (£6.7m). Kevin De Bruyne (£12.1m) started against Brighton, so Pep may opt to rest him, creating an opportunity for Julián Álvarez (£6.1m) to play. As an Álvarez owner, I’m not entirely confident though.

Liverpool rotation

Following Manchester United's victory over Chelsea, it’s been confirmed that Liverpool will be participating in the Europa League next season. Their chances of securing a Champions League spot have vanished.

Jürgen Klopp stated today that he intends to make changes and introduce "fresh legs" for the upcoming Southampton game.

As someone that owns Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.8m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) I’m a little worried, but still think they’ll both start.

The more likely changes might be related to something else he said in today’s press conference.

Kostas Tsimikas (£4.3m) could potentially replace Andrew Robertson (£6.8m), while one of the other center-backs might come in for Ibrahima Konaté (£4.9m).

I anticipate Roberto Firmino (£8.0m) to start in his final game for the club, which could result in Cody Gakpo (£7.6m) being relegated to the bench.

📈 Transfer Activity 📉

Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) may not generate much excitement for the final day, but he has the potential to be a solid pick in Gameweek 38. One significant advantage he offers over many other players is the guarantee of minutes. He has played 84 minutes or more in the last 14 matches. Aston Villa needs a victory to secure their place in the Europa Conference League, without relying on other results. While Brighton (h) may not be the easiest fixture, they are a team with nothing to play for and may have been celebrating since Wednesday when they secured their Europa League spot.

With Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) ruled out due to injury for the final day of the season, FPL managers have turned their attention to Dwight McNeil (£5.1m) for a piece of the Everton attack. On paper, Everton have a good fixture against Bournemouth (h), which adds to the appeal. However, McNeil played as a left back in the last match and may occupy that position again in Gameweek 38, or possibly even as a left wing back. If you are considering a punt on an Everton attacker, Demarai Gray (£5.1m) could be an option as he may be deployed up front in place of Calvert-Lewin.

Luke Shaw (£5.3m) has been transferred out by 61,096 FPL managers this week, mostly due to the back injury sustained during the Chelsea match. While Erik Ten Hag hasn't provided confirmation about his availability for Gameweek 38, considering Manchester United has secured Champions League football for next season and has the upcoming FA Cup Final, it seems unlikely that Shaw will be risked. If you have a free transfer and no bench options, it could be worth transferring him out. However, the defender options available are not great. Opting for an Arsenal defender like Ben White (£5.0m) could be a safe choice.

👑 Captaincy 👑

If Pep Guardiola does opt to field a strong team, Erling Haaland (£12.4m) would likely be the top captain choice, as he often is. He may even be due a goal as he has only scored once in his last four matches, despite 2.45xG racked up in that time. Brentford isn’t an easy game, but given Manchester City's ability to create numerous scoring opportunities, Haaland has a good chance as always, of finding the back of the net.

Kane could be the next best option and a more differential choice compared to Haaland. He’s another player we can generally rely on to start and he will likely play close to, if not the full 90 minutes. Although Leeds United has something to fight for, their defence is not strong enough to stop Spurs from scoring.

Considering Southampton has already been relegated, Salah is another pick I really like. The only potential drawbacks might be rotation, not only for Salah but also for the Liverpool team as a whole. This could make Salah a slightly riskier option compared to what we're used to.

💪 My Team 💪

Gameweek 38 tends to see more goals on average than other Gameweeks so unless I’m forced into it, I don’t want to use a transfer on a goalkeeper or defender.

Neither Ederson (£5.4m) nor Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.5m) are likely to keep a clean sheet, and both are possibly issues in terms of starts, but as above - I don’t want to use a transfer on either. Unless we get team news that both are benched, I’ll just play Ederson and hope.

Similarly, there’s no defenders I’m particularly enthralled about this week so I’ll probably play Shaw, and if he doesn’t play Kieran Trippier (£6.0m) will come on instead.

As for my likely moves using two free transfers, my current plan is to transfer out Alexis Mac Allister (£5.6m) and Álvarez for Eze and Odsonne Edouard (£5.0m). I’m hoping for plenty of goals from Crystal Palace.

Ultimately though I’m open to lots of different options depending on possible team leaks. My main goal is to try and sell some high owned players for much lower owned ones to try and break into the top 25,000. My current rank is 36,210.

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