⚽ FPL 2023/24 IS LIVE - MY FIRST DRAFT

👋 Hello 👋

FPL 2023/24 IS LIVE!…….but you probably already knew that.

I would pretend I was letting the FPL launch settle down a bit before sending this email, but really I just got stuck making videos.

Anyway, we’re here now, so let’s take a look at how things are shaping up early on.

 🙌 My First Draft 🙌

With 35 days to go until Gameweek 1, these players are far from locked in, but it’s a start at least.

In fact the only two players I’d be fairly confident of making the final team selection are Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.0m).

Most other spots are up for grabs, although if Alphonse Areola (£4.0m) becomes the first choice goalkeeper for West Ham he’s an obvious option for the bench.

Because of Chelsea’s poor performance last season a lot of their players are potentially underpriced. I’m expecting significant improvement under Mauricio Pochettino. Raheem Sterling (£7.0m) has been priced as high as £12.0m in the past so we know what he’s capable of. Not a sure thing this season, but perhaps worth the risk.

Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) lets me double up on the Arsenal attack without taking up another midfield spot. The thinking is there’s more midfielders than forwards that I like at £6.5m. Right now Bryan Mbeumo (£6.5m) and Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) are my favourites at that price point.

Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) is really just a placeholder. We know he’s nailed on and Everton’s fixtures are pretty good, but I’m wary of backing their defence. Mark Flekken (£4.5m) has been brought in by Brentford, presumably to replace David Raya (£5.0m) who is rumoured to want to leave. Jason Steele (£4.5m) who ended last season as Brighton’s number one is also tempting. Brighton have signed a new goalkeeper in Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m). Whoever starts as number one for Brentford or Brighton is likely to be more appealing than Pickford by the time we get to the Gameweek 1 deadline.

🤔 Trent & Salah - still essential? 🤔

Even at a price tag of £14.0m, Haaland is going to be in nearly every team in Gameweek 1. In fact, at the time of writing he’s already in 83.9% of all teams, I don’t expect that to drop much at all.

It begs the question whether Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) are as essential as maybe they’ve been in the past. We know they’re very likely to be consistent points scorers, but with so many well priced midfielders in the £8.5m - £9.0m range, it might be better to spread the funds around a little instead.

In terms of captaincy, Haaland can easily be captained every week for the first 6 Gameweeks. The only time I’d really want to go for Salah is Gameweek 2 against Bournemouth (h), but it’s not the end of the world if I captain Haaland against Newcastle (h).

I don’t want to settle on anything at this early stage, but for the first time in seven seasons, I’m at least considering not starting with Salah.

As for Alexander-Arnold, I love his new role in midfield and if that continues it’ll be hard to turn him down, but at £8.0m it’s something I’ll have to think about doing. Outside of Andrew Robertson (£6.5m) and Kieran Trippier (£6.5m), every other defender is £6.0m or below - there’s a lot of value to be had!

❌ To avoid, or not to avoid… ❌

There’s already a bunch of players I’m likely to avoid in my Gameweek 1 team.

Trippier’s price tag of £6.5m is fully justified after finishing on 198 points last season, but it feels like too much to bother starting with him. Newcastle United have a run of games that includes Man City (a), Liverpool (h), and Brighton (a) in the opening four Gameweeks. Further down the line they’ll also have Champions League to contend with as well. At some point he’ll make it into my team, but not straight away.

The price of Ben White (£5.5m) makes no sense to me really. He’s offers no extras in terms of attacking returns and minutes over the rest of the Arsenal defence, and they’re all priced £0.5m less. Gabriel (£5.0m) is my pick of the bunch, only Fabian Schär (£5.0m) accumulated more expected goals last season for defenders.

Alexander Isak (£7.5m) is another player I’m not keen on. There’s rumours that Newcastle are about to sign Harvey Barnes which would add to their ever growing list of players that can play left wing. In some ways that’s good for Isak, it means he’s more likely to play centrally, the problem is he has competition for minutes from Callum Wilson (£8.0m).

 💰 Where’s the value? 💰

With FPL pricing so many players generously there’s a whole list of players I could talk about as being value for money, but for now let’s just run through a few.

For the first time in four seasons, Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) is priced lower than £10.0m. He didn’t have a particularly outstanding season last year, but it wasn’t awful either. To get a Man United attacker who’s nailed for minutes and takes penalties for £8.5m feels a bit too good to be true.

Saka was a favourite of mine last year and will continue to be this season. His price puts him just £0.5m more than Gabriel Martinelli (£8.0m) and the same as Martin Ødegaard (£8.5m). Saka is about as secure as it gets when it comes to game time, and he takes penalties which makes him the pick of the Arsenal attackers for me.

Don’t laugh, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) is worth thinking about. You’re laughing aren’t you? Okay, I get it, but hear me out. His last two seasons have been nothing short of awful with 40 points last year, and 64 the year before that. But this is a player who’s capable of much more. In 2020/21 he returned 16 goals, 6 assists, and in 2019/20 it was 13 goals and 1 assist. If he can prove his fitness in pre-season he might be the pick of the £7.0m or below forwards.

🏆 Win your mini-league 🏆

I’m happy to say that I’ve partnered with Fantasy Football Hub for the 2023/24 season. They offer a whole host of tools and articles to help you win your mini-league. In fact, if you don’t win it - they’ll give you your money back! Terms and conditions apply and you can read them here.

If you want to check them out you can use my affiliate link.

In the next few days they’ll have their ‘my team’ tool up and running which will rate your team for free, you just need to have an account with them. Again, just use the link above to get signed up.

💡 Pre-Season plans 💡

This is the first pre-season writing this newsletter so it’s all a bit new to me.

My aim is to try and get something out weekly - updates on my draft, the latest talking points, any news from pre-season - that kind of stuff!

If you have any ideas of what you’d like to see, feel free to drop me an email at [email protected]

📽️ YouTube 📽️

I’m hoping to hit 400,000 subscribers by Gameweek 1. The pre-season content is already in full flow so if you’re not already subscribed, help me out and click here. Check out the latest videos below.